Development, Validation, and Implementation of an Individualized Risk Prediction Tool for Exacerbations in Severe Asthma

Development, Validation, and Implementation of an Individualized Risk Prediction Tool for Exacerbations in Severe Asthma

Asthma is a chronic disease of the lungs that affects more than 300 million people across the world. Daily symptoms such as cough and shortness of breath are common features of asthma. In addition, periods of worsening symptoms, referred to as asthma lung attacks, exert a high toll on patients as well as healthcare resources. Lung attacks are the main reasons for asthma-related visits to emergency departments, hospitalizations, or death. If doctors can predict who has a higher risk for lung attacks, they can provide a more aggressive treatment to prevent it. Currently, doctors primarily rely on the history of lung attacks to decide how much risk a patient has for future lung attacks. In our previous studies on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), we have shown that we can use simple demographic and clinical variables such as age, sex, lung function tests, and medications that a patient is receiving to predict lung attacks more accurately. Building on our success in addressing similar questions in patients with COPD, we proposed to use the high-quality data of these three studies to create a risk predication tool for doctors so they can have a better idea of which patients are more likely to experience lung attacks. This allows doctors to tailor the treatment to the needs of each individual patient.

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