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EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CARDIOVASCULAR DRUGS ON SURVIVAL AND EXACERBATIONS IN PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE
Proposal
11927
Title of Proposed Research
EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CARDIOVASCULAR DRUGS ON SURVIVAL AND EXACERBATIONS IN PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE
Lead Researcher
Marie Fisk
Affiliation
University of Cambridge & Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
Funding Source
Potential Conflicts of Interest
Data Sharing Agreement Date
01 January 0001
Lay Summary
There is an urgent need to improve the survival and health of people living with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD is a lung condition that causes breathlessness and cough and often people living with the condition have sudden worsening of symptoms called exacerbations or flare-ups. Theseexacerbations are very debilitating and frightening for people living with COPD and can shorten life expectancy. Inhalers are the main type of medicines used to treat COPD and can improve symptoms and breathing capacity and reduce the risk of these exacerbations. Despite the benefits of inhalers, there remains an important unmet need to improve survival and improve the health of people living with COPD. COPD is a leading cause of death worldwide, and COPD exacerbations are the 2nd leading cause of hospital admission in the UK. People living with COPD, in addition to their lung disease, also often have an increased risk of heart attacks and stroke. Whether medicines prescribed to treat cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be of benefit to improve survival and reduce exacerbations is an area of special interest. People living with COPD and who have a diagnosis of CVD too; often don't receive the same recommended treatments as people with CVD, but without COPD. This may be because of concern of undertaking interventional procedures in patients with lung disease. It is therefore imperative that pharmacological therapies (i.e drugs) that may benefit, are more widely considered whether appropriate to prescribe in people living with COPD. Data from a large observational general population study showed that aspirin use was associated with less progression of lung damage in people with COPD. A separate analysis also suggested aspirin use was associated with a reduced number of exacerbations. A smaller COPD study found that aspirin use vs not having a prescription for it, was associated with reduced 1-year mortality following a hospital admission for an exacerbation. Data from studies also suggest benefits of other types of cardiovascular medicines in people with COPD. For example, cardiovascular drugs called beta blockers which reduce heart rate and statins which reduce cholesterol are also thought to be potentially beneficial in reducing the risk of COPD exacerbations, besides their established cardiovascular benefits. Indeed, a randomised placebo-controlled trial is currently underway in the UK to see if a beta blocker called bisoprolol can help reduce risk of exacerbations. The aim of our research proposal is to utilise the uniquely large trial dataset of the SUMMIT COPD trial to find out if we can estimate the effects of cardiovascular medicines on survival and exacerbations. Objectives are: 1. To determine individual and cumulative effects of cardiovascular medicines on survival in people with COPD.2. Estimate individual and cumulative effects of cardiovascular medicines on exacerbations.3. Evaluate the possible benefit vs risk of antiplatelets (i.e aspirin) in COPD.4. Evaluate the effect of aspirin vs none on decline in breathing capacity over time in people with COPD. The SUMMIT COPD trial is a unique study to utilise to answer these objectives. It is a large trial, and has good quality data in terms of outcomes recorded. Given that eligibility for taking part in the trial meant being at higher risk of CVD, means the cohort has a reasonable proportion of participants prescribed such cardiovascular medicines, which is helpful for analyses. We also hope to evaluate our objectives in a second separate trial population that is different from the SUMMIT trial to see if we get similar results. We will use varied statistical methods to answer our questions. It is very efficient to analyse existing trial data to assess these research objectives and avoids cost and waste of doing further large studies at this stage.
Study Data Provided
[{ "PostingID": 4109, "Title": "GSK-HZC113782", "Description": "A Clinical Outcomes Study to compare the effect of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol Inhalation Powder 100/25mcg with placebo on Survival in Subjects with moderate Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and a history of or at increased risk for cardiovascular disease" },{ "PostingID": 16073, "Title": "GSK-CTT116855", "Description": "A phase III, 52 week, randomized, double-blind, 3-arm parallel group study, comparing the efficacy, safety and tolerability of the fixed dose triple combination FF/UMEC/VI with the fixed dose dual combinations of FF/VI and UMEC/VI, all administered once-daily in the morning via a dry powder inhaler in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease" }]
Statistical Analysis Plan
The proposal is to evaluate the objectives and outcomes firstly in the SUMMIT trial dataset (n=~16,000) which is a large cohort of COPD participants with moderate airflow limitation and increased cardiovascular risk. Secondly, to explore these objectives in a second COPD trial cohort (IMPACT trial), which is a large cohort of COPD participants (n~10,000) with severe airflow limitation. Although the researchers recognise that the analyses proposed are observational and therefore interpretation of results and definitive recommendations are not possible, the unique benefits of using patient level data from these trial cohorts, are their large size of confirmed diagnosis of COPD participants. Other observational cohorts are considerably smaller in size by comparison and the quality of cohort definition and outcome data reporting are much less robust that in trial data. The intention-to-treat population will be used for both trial datasets.SUMMIT Trial:Within the four randomised groups listed below, descriptive statistics will be used to describe demographics of participants with aspirin/anti-platelets use vs not, beta blockers vs not, statins vs not, ACEi/ARBs vs not, participants on these four drug classes vs not. Given that the % use of such medicines in the whole cohort ranged from ~50-67% for these different drug classes, there should be a reasonable size of participants split into use/non-use in each group. Descriptive statistics will also be used to report the frequency of outcomes and median length (IQR) of follow up in each group.Groups:n=4111 placebo, n=4135 in inhaled corticosteroid group (ICS; fluticasone), n=4118 in long acting beta agonist(LABA; vilanterol)n=4121 (combined ICS +LABA). In the SUMMIT trial, there was no difference in survival between the four groups. The study was event driven (1000 deaths) and the median follow up was 1.8 years [IQR 1.2-2.6] with a maximum of 4 years. Therefore, analysis will additionally be performed for the entire cohort using cox proportional hazards regression and including in the model use of aspirin/antiplatelets, betablockers, statins, ACEi/ARBs, use of all four drug classes, and covariates of age, sex, randomised inhaler group, recruitment site (if this is feasible to include), history of previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, forced expiratory lung volume in 1 second (FEV1) % predicted, exacerbations in preceding 12 months before randomisation/enrolment. Given there was no difference in the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, unstable angina, and transient ischaemic attack across randomised groups, a similar model to that described above will be applied to evaluate associations with this dependent outcome.Separately, cox proportional hazard models will be used for each randomised subgroup (~4,000 each) to evaluate survival and the cardiovascular endpoint. Covariates of age and sex, recruitment site, history of previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, forced expiratory lung volume in 1 second (FEV1) % predicted, and exacerbations in preceding 12 months will be included in the models. The rate of exacerbations will be evaluated by dividing number of exacerbations by person-years of follow up and will be analysed with a negative-binomial analyses, which accounts for the variability among patients and will include the drug classes of interest, (FEV1) % and previous exacerbations in models.Based on data from the MESA study, a further exploratory analysis will evaluate the effect of aspirin vs no aspirin use on rate of lung function decline. This will similarly be assessed within the four subgroups and include appropriate covariates in analysis. Decline will be analysed with a random coefficients model (FEV1 in SUMMIT trial was measured serially over follow up), allowing for covariates of age, sex, and baseline FEV1. The slope will be calculated from 90 days, as per the main trial analysis. Pending results from the SUMMIT analysis, the same type of analyses will be applied to the IMPACT trial. The IMPACT trial includes 10,355 participants in total with 1 year follow up and includes severe COPD participants. It is crucial to evaluate analyses across the heterogeneity of COPD patients. Only within group analyses will be performed due to significant benefit of triple therapy on mortality in this trial.Groups are:Triple therapy-ICS, LABA and long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), n=4151ICS+LABA, n=4134LAMA+LABA, n=2070In the SUMMIT trial, there was no mention in publication of missing data being an issue and the primary outcome of mortality was known in 99.97% of the intention to treat population. Similarly, in the IMPACT trial, 99.6% of all-cause mortality data is available for the study cohort. It is further anticipated that the data collated and analysed in this research proposal could be presented as a forest plot by subgroup with pooled effect, using a random effects metanalysis model.All analyses will be performed using R (R foundation).
Publication Citation
Summary Results:
Link to Aspirin Chapter.pdf
https://clinicalstudydatarequest.com/Documents/Aspirin%20Chapter.pdf
Link to Yuan PhD thesis.pdf
https://clinicalstudydatarequest.com/Documents/Yuan%20PhD%20thesis.pdf
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